Abstract:

The authors constructed three indicative pathways to showcase different trajectories to reach the 2050 net-zero target. The estimated emissions reduction from three measures’ categories would equal 24% compared to the 2019 emission levels; this overall reduction is not in line with the more “aggressive” of the three pathways, i.e. the pathway already under way with a linear decrease of emissions to net zero in 2050. No single alternative measure is sufficient on its own for aligning to the faster reductions’ pathways, so all alternatives need to be combined. The options considered for emissions reduction are generally commercially available, and the targets for electrification by 2030 are ambitious, albeit in line with targets expressed by European manufacturers in the previous months. The present contribution from heavy-duty vehicles to the EU 2030 climate plan for the “Fit for 55” package is small. Decarbonization measures for heavy-duty vehicles have a much greater potential to contribute to reducing European emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.