Abstract:

This study shows that Hainan’s 2019 roadmap is insufficient for achieving the 2030 goal of transiting to new energy vehicles (NEV), largely because of the slow transition of trucks. Under the Baseline scenario which mostly follows the 2019 roadmap, the emissions reductions from NEV passenger vehicles and buses are undermined by a substantial increase in truck emissions. Instead, an Accelerated scenario of NEV transition would result in an early peaking of Hainan’s on-road transportation CO2 emissions in 2027, largely because of a faster transition to NEV light- and heavy-duty trucks.