Abstract:

Plug-in vehicles (PEVs), which include battery-only electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), have steadily grown in sales amidst various incentive programs, but much speculation exists on when PEVs would become cost-competitive without incentives. This research adopts a bottom-up approach for estimation of purchase cost, and total cost of ownership (TCO). Baseline predictions, as well as sensitivity analysis (with more favorable conditions for PEVs) are generated for 2030. Results show that the five-year TCO of some PEVs could be less than an equivalent-sized conventional internal combustion-engine (CICE) vehicle, but only in the more optimistic scenarios where the cost of batteries and motors decrease more rapidly than the baseline prediction, and when combined with either higher gasoline prices or longer annual distance travelled. However, without subsidies or incentives, purchase cost parity between PEVs and CICEs was not realized in any of the considered 2030 scenarios.