Abstract:

This working paper assesses battery electric vehicle costs in the 2020–2030 time frame, using the best battery pack and electric vehicle component cost data available through 2018. The assessment analyzes the timing for price parity for representative electric cars, crossovers, and sport utility vehicles compared to their conventional gasoline counterparts in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market. The analysis leads to two high-level findings. (1) Electric vehicle initial cost parity is coming within 5–10 years. (2) Cost-competitiveness for consumers approaches even faster than initial cost parity based on fuel savings.