Abstract:

The focus on e-mobility has soared worldwide in recent years as an opportunity for creating demand for new products, reducing transport costs, reducing air pollution or increasing the share of renewable sources in the national energy mix. This paper discusses three variants of how e-mobility development will affect the Polish Power System. Multivariate forecasts of annual new registrations of electric vehicles for up to seven years are developed. The forecasts use the direct trend extrapolation methods, methods based on the deterministic chaos theory, multiple regression models, and the Grey model. The number of electric vehicles in use was determined for 2019‒2025 based on the forecast new registrations. The forecasts were conducted in three variants for the annual electric energy demand in 2019‒2025, using the forecast number of electric vehicles and the forecast annual demand for electric energy excluding e-mobility. The paper proposes a unique approach to forecasts of daily energy demand profiles for two characteristic days, which deserves special attention. It uses both proprietary power demand forecasts for the given year and forecasts of the shapes of the relative profiles. Proprietary relative profiles are used to develop energy demand profiles resulting from e-mobility, taking into account different EV categories.