Abstract:

Innovations in "new mobility" could change the transportation system, including the use of automated, electric, and shared vehicles. However, researchers are still learning about who is currently using these technologies ("realized demand") and who is interested in future usage ("latent demand"). The authors explore these patterns via a representative survey including three of Canada's largest metropolitan regions: Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal (n = 3658, in June 2020). Realized demand is assessed as respondents who use or own the technology (pre-pandemic), while latent demand is assessed as respondents who report interest in using the technology (post-pandemic). For most technologies, latent demand is higher than realized demand, indicating the potential for market growth. Exceptions are ride-hailing and pooled ride-hailing in Toronto and Montreal, where latent demand is lower, likely due to concerns relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. There is regional variation in realized and latent demand for shared mobility: ride-hailing usage is highest in Toronto, and car-sharing usage and interest are highest in Vancouver (each corresponding to regional availability). Additionally, Montreal has the biggest latent demand for fully automated electric vehicles and electric vehicles. Otherwise, latent demand levels for the remaining technologies are similar across regions. Regression models indicate that latent demand for each technology is associated with respondents' travel patterns, demographics, values, lifestyles, and environmental concerns. Regional effects are evident in descriptive and regression analyses, with higher latent demand for car-sharing among respondents from Vancouver and higher latent demand for electric vehicles among residents of Montreal, respectively. This suggests that regional context may be important in explaining latent demand.