Abstract:

This article examines the design of a recent regulatory proposal in Europe that promotes the growth of a battery recycling business. Although electric mobility is thought to be necessary to reduce CO2 emissions in the transportation sector, the industrial and environmental impacts of lithium-ion battery manufacturing are controversial. A recent regulatory proposal from the European Commission introduces the obligation to attain a series of minimum thresholds of recycled materials for the new batteries to be manufactured after 2030. This paper discusses the conditions required for that obligation to be fulfilled. It develops a material flow model that projects battery wastes and their recycling potential. Our findings indicate that the feasibility of proposed thresholds is not very sensitive to changes in material intensities from battery technology shifts, recycling efficiencies, or the faster demand uptake. On the contrary, battery lifetimes are the most crucial parameters for recycling potential. The authors believe that this result could jeopardize avenues for extending battery lifetimes, such as second-battery usage. In this article, the authors' recommend lower thresholds to improve the regulation's credibility, and the regulation should integrate other objectives that address the lifetime of batteries.