Abstract:

Airlines and governments have committed to achieving net-zero emissions from aviation by mid-century. In this report, the authors develop a roadmap to evaluate the emission impacts of ICCT scenarios for aviation technology and operations using a new Projection of Aviation Carbon Emissions (PACE) model. The goal is to assess the extent to which measures can reduce cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global aviation in line with 1.5°C, 1.75°C, and 2°C targets. Three decarbonization scenarios Action, Transformation, and Breakthrough are analyzed along with a Baseline scenario, each built around six important parameters: (1) traffic; (2) aircraft technology; (3) operations; (4) zero-emission planes (ZEPs); (5) sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs); and (6) economic incentives.