Abstract:

Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. The authors assess strategies employed by automobile manufacturers towards the development and market penetration of electric vehicles. Impacts on electric powertrain sales shares (up to 2050) related to industrial strategies, represented by learning effect, marketing effort and R&D funding, are presented under different scenarios related to policy, regulation and market conditions. It is concluded from the results presented that competition between electrical powertrain options may be more inhibitive than competition against conventional counterparts, with both monetary and non-monetary industry support for immature powertrains key to their long-term success when supportive policies are designed to be technology neutral.