Abstract:

The focus here is on the scenarios that incorporate policy interventions that could help decarbonize the sector. Besides the Business-As-Usual (BAU), there were typically two kinds of alternate scenarios incorporated in the models we analyzed: the Moderate effort and the High Ambition. 

The goal of this meta-study is to identify nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets for the road transport sector, and thus we will discuss only the High Ambition scenarios, as these align closer with a 1.5°C path. The scenarios consider different policies and interventions, including efficiency improvement, electrification, diversification of fuel, travel demand reduction, and mode shift to public transport. Efficiency improvement and electrification were found to be the most effective interventions for reducing emissions across models.