Abstract:

The pace of vehicle electrification in China and globally hinges on how quickly electric vehicle costs decline. With this paper, the authors combine the best available battery and vehicle component cost data in a bottom-up analysis to project electric vehicle costs in China from 2020 through 2035, and then evaluate when electric vehicles could reach price parity with conventional vehicles. This study includes full battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and assesses costs for various vehicle classes in the China passenger vehicle market, including cars and sport utility vehicles. Electric vehicle subsidies and tax advantages are deliberately excluded to provide a technology-neutral comparison of the costs and benefits. This paper suggests China has an opportunity to continue to expand its electric vehicle production, and thus accelerate the time to reach electric vehicle cost parity.