Abstract:

The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that only an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements. The primary goal of this paper is to show the relationship between the Improve elements with the Avoid and Shift strategies in the ETP 2DS scenario. The scenarios developed for this paper disaggregate the ETP 2012 scenarios further to highlight the relationship between different CO2 mitigation actions. This paper also lays out some comparisons between different approaches and how changes in travel affect what is required in terms of efficiency and fuel changes. Though not the focus of this paper, it should be remembered as well that transport CO2 mitigation strategies primarily focusing on fuels and technologies are not likely to deliver on the full potential of co-benefits.