Abstract:

Electric vehicles are a key element in transport sustainable development as they could reduce its energy and carbon intensity, as well as the associated pollutant emission. The present paper investigates the impact of the introduction of electric cars in the Italian car fleet and its impact on the energy system. Indeed, the objective of this study is to introduce a multidisciplinary analysis of the electric vehicles. This paper investigates possible scenarios of electric cars introduction and their impact on the Italian electricity system. Given the foreseen increased number of cars until the year 2030, three different scenarios in terms of penetration of electric vehicles have been considered, namely 10%, 20% and 40%. A detailed bottom up energy model of the Italian car fleet has been developed. The car fleet is analyzed in terms of energy consumption, carbon emissions and externalities costs. The scenarios analysis suggests that the introduction of electric cars would always lead to primary energy savings. In particular, the increase of the penetration corresponds to a decrease of primary energy consumption, carbon emissions and externalities costs. A cleaner transport sector, car fleet in particular, would be determinant for the decrease of the pollution, especially in cities and urban areas where it is concentrated the largest number of cars. Scenarios should be taken into account in national energy policies to manage and modify national transport planning as part of geopolitical and economic strategy. Awareness of the scenarios allows to better choose appropriate policy elements through multicriteria and long-term emission assessments.