Abstract:

This paper evaluates the benefits to New York State of adopting three California regulations: the Advanced Clean Trucks rule, the Heavy-Duty Omnibus rule, and the California Phase II greenhouse gas rule. Without any new policy, fleet-wide emissions of nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter will decline 40% and 60%, respectively, from 2020 to 2035. But, from 2035 to 2050, NOx and PM emissions will grow 28% and 13%, respectively, as a result of a growing vehicle population and the absence of further emission reductions from the phase-in of model year 2010 emission control technologies. The combined adoption of the Advanced Clean Trucks rule and the Heavy-Duty Omnibus rule would generate 8% lower cumulative NOx emissions compared to the business-as-usual case from 2020 to 2040. Annual NOx emissions in 2050 would be 46% below 2020 levels, twice the reduction expected under the business-as-usual scenario. The Advanced Clean Trucks rule would generate cumulative PM reductions about 2% lower than the business-as-usual scenario from 2020 to 2040 and 59% lower emissions in 2050 relative to 2020 levels. The relative greenhouse gas emission benefits of the Advanced Clean Trucks rule, magnified by a zero-emission electric grid in 2040 and complemented by full implementation of trailer greenhouse gas standards, are significant. Cumulative avoided emissions are 17.91 million metric tons from 2020 to 2040, about 5% below business-as-usual. Emissions in 2050 will be 6% lower than 2020 levels, reversing the double-digit increase expected without new policy.