Abstract:

The transport sector has to be widely decarbonized by 2050 to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. For this reason, many countries have set goals to ban fossil-fueled vehicles from the road within the next two decades. This paper explored four pathways to a carbon-free transport sector in Germany in 2050 with foci on electricity, hydrogen, synthetic methane, or liquid synthetic fuels. The authors used a transport demand model for future vehicle use and a simulation model to determine alternative fuel vehicle market shares. The authors found a large share of electric vehicles in all scenarios, even in the scenarios with a focus on other fuels. In all scenarios, the final energy consumption decreased significantly, most strongly when the focus was on electricity and almost one-third lower in primary energy demand compared with the other scenarios. High shares of electric vehicles in all scenarios will be the most energy-efficient and economical option in the future.