Abstract:

This paper presents a model to predict the market penetration of autonomous cars for passenger transportation, focussing on autonomous taxis without a steering wheel. For this, a discrete system dynamics model was created and evaluated where the input parameters have been taken from the literature and a survey. In this survey, user demands were investigated among 873 participants. It showed that gender, age, job situation, city size and monthly income have an impact on the trust in the technology of autonomous driving as well as on the willingness to use autonomous taxis. In contrast, no evidence of an impact was found for the respondent's education or the numbers of adults or children in the household. The results indicate that the majority of autonomous driving vehicles will be private and will have a steering wheel within the scope of this study, which covers the time frame until 2040. These are expected to reach 12.4 million units. Autonomous taxis can enter the market at the same time. They are expected to reach a maximum of 2.4 million units by 2038, mostly uncontrollable (without a steering wheel). This depends largely on the trust in the technology as well as the ability of people to give up their own car due to cost or use factors.