Abstract:

This study is to determine the magnitude of mitigation possible in the transport sector by 2030 considering low carbon policies investigated for implementation in individual countries. The report assesses a BAU scenario, as well as two hypothetical variants of LCS (average and aggressive) based on available mitigation potential studies, and three different variations of INDC transport related targets. Under a Business as Usual Scenario, a continuation of current transport activity trends without low carbon policy interventions, could lead to a 55% increase in transport CO2 emissions by 2030 when compared with 2010 levels. However, transport emissions in 2030 must be below 2010 levels in order to be in line with 2DS scenario. This analysis shows however an emission gap in 2030 of about 3.4 Gt (i.e. a gap of 42%) between BAU and 2DS projections for the 138 countries assessed in this report. The report assessed that to address the emission gap low carbon policies (incorporating ‘Avoid,’ ‘Shift,’ and ‘Improve’ strategies) must be scaled up and accelerated to approach a 2 degrees within the transport sector (e.g. manage the demand for travel through land-use planning and pricing; promote modal shift to low(er) carbon transport modes; implementing strict fuel economy standards and pricing to leapfrog technologies; promoting electrification and renewables in road transport).