Abstract:

This briefing summarizes existing practices and develops design principles related to adapting vehicle efficiency and CO2 standards in the 2020–2030 timeframe to enable a long-term transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). Regulations so far have been developed almost exclusively for incremental efficiency improvements. The analysis fills gaps in the prevailing regulatory analysis regarding emission trade-offs from regulatory incentives, how targeted ZEV regulations could accelerate the shift to electric for light-duty vehicles, and how electric vehicles change the fundamental math on incremental percent-per-year CO2 standards. The focus of the briefing is on the markets of China, Europe, and the United States, which represent 90% of the world’s electric vehicle sales and have regulatory frameworks to further drive the market. The discussion lead to two high-level policy conclusions. (1) Efficiency standards are essential but insufficient to launch a mainstream electric vehicle market. (2) Ensuring the transition to electric by 2050 means much bolder efficiency standards or direct electric vehicle requirements are needed.