Abstract:

Reaching China’s carbon neutrality goal has more pronounced implications for freight transport than it does for passenger transport. To attain the carbon neutrality goal, road freight transport could need to reduce GHG emissions by a cumulative 19,367 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq) from 2020 to 2060 compared with the BAU scenario, over two times the cumulative emission reduction associated with road passenger transport. To unlock road freight’s decarbonization potential, China needs to make technology advances in long-haul heavy-duty trucks and refrigerated trucks, promote freight mode shifts to railways and waterways, and improve freight logistic efficiency. China also needs to significantly improve its freight statistical data collection system to support evidence-based policymaking in the above areas. China’s road transport sector plays an important role in meeting carbon early peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study examines how the sector might be decarbonized by modelling five scenarios using the LEAP model. It aims to inform China road transport sector’s emission reduction target, identification of cost-effective measures that deliver on the sectoral emission reduction targets, facilitation of low-carbon investments and identification of decarbonization measures with air pollution reduction co-benefits.