Abstract:

Electric vehicles (EVs) represent a promising step toward lowering greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector but this report finds that EVs will continue to play a small part in emissions reductions over the next five years, with larger contributions in the decade after. This report details the current role that EVs play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the US transportation sector. It also looks forward to 2025 and beyond to assess the potential for EVs to reduce future GHG emissions. The report found that despite exponential growth, EVs still represent only 2 to 3% of the annual new-vehicle market share. Passenger vehicle fleets take approximately 20 years to turn over, and truck fleets 25 years. Even under optimistic forecasts, the transition to EVs will be gradual. New EV sales will have a limited impact on overall emissions by 2025 but will be increasingly important in the following decades. Continued improvements in gasoline vehicle fuel economy are critical to reduce GHG emissions during this long-term transition. There are still barriers to more widespread adoption of EVs, including vehicle cost especially for larger vehicles and public charging technology and availability. Government policies and continued innovation will be important for accelerating the transition to EVs.