Abstract:

Global greenhouse gas emissions must decrease swiftly in order to restrict warming to well below 2 °C, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement. The transition to ZEVs presents substantial opportunities for emissions reduction in the road transport sector, which emits more than one fifth of global CO2 emissions. The transition to 100% ZEV or EV sales for new cars and vans by 2035 is gaining momentum, as evidenced by the recent adoption of regulations by numerous key economies. 

This study revises the annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments conducted by the ICCT, examining their influence on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050. The study evaluated three updated scenarios in addition to the policies in the Baseline scenarios designed in the previous studies (Baseline 2021 and Baseline 2023). These scenarios include a Baseline 2024 scenario that incorporates policies adopted through August 2024, a Momentum scenario that includes additional proposed policies and targets, and an Ambitious scenario that is aligned with the Paris Agreement goals. The analysis demonstrates that recent policy changes have significantly increased the projected uptake of ZEVs and offers insights into the remaining voids in a Paris-compatible emissions trajectory.