Abstract:

Governments are prioritising encouraging the use of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), particularly plug-in electric cars (EVs), due to their capacity to lower petroleum demand, enhance air quality, and lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Optimal strategies to accelerate EV adoption must weigh the relative value of alternative policy mechanisms to consumers, including public charging infrastructure and vehicle purchase subsidies. The authors use a historically validated light-duty vehicle consumer choice tool, the ADOPT model, to simulate personal light-duty vehicle adoption and related emissions in California. ADOPT is updated to incorporate quantification of the tangible value of public charging infrastructure, allowing us to simulate the impact of investments in public charging infrastructure and vehicle purchase subsidies under different scenarios. The authors show that both policies result in increased EV adoption, with the most effective policy varying depending on vehicle technology assumptions. Under conservative technology improvement assumptions, infrastructure investments are most effective in promoting EV sales and reducing CO2 emissions, while under optimistic technology improvement assumptions, a combination of infrastructure and subsidies best supports EV sales and CO2 emission reductions.