Abstract:

This study identified several areas which could accelerate the development of the Australian hydrogen market. The focus is on activities that will advance near commercial sectors toward economic viability and confirmation / definition of industry standards. To understand the potential use cases for low carbon hydrogen in the Australian context between 2020 and 2050, this study looked at:

1. Hydrogen supply (technical and commercial);
2. Hydrogen distribution and dispensing (technical and commercial);
3. Hydrogen end-use technology limitations / efficiencies; and
4. Costs of hydrogen technologies relative to incumbent technology pathways.

This study found that the forecast costs for low carbon hydrogen will not achieve thermal cost parity with natural gas, of approximately $1.1/kg, before 2050. Hence the displacement of natural gas in industrial heating applications will not occur in this timeframe without either substantial regulatory or policy support or significantly more aggressive electrolyser and renewable energy cost declines than were assumed by this study.