Abstract:

New fuel consumption limits for passenger vehicles are scheduled to take effect in India in FY 2022–23, and this paper examines the performance of manufacturer groups with respect to new passenger vehicles sold in FY 2019–20. The FY 2022–23 standards are much less stringent than the EU 2021 standards, and indeed, this analysis of Segment Y data finds that manufacturers have already made significant progress toward compliance. Fleet average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for FY 2019–20 was 122.4 grams (g) per kilometer (km). Assuming similar industry average weight going forward, the compliance target for FY 2022–23 will be 109.4 gCO2/km. This means that the Indian automobile industry need only reduce fuel consumption by approximately 3.67% per year over the next 3 years to meet the FY 2022–23 standards. Additionally, based on this analysis, the actual, real-world decrease in fuel consumption will almost certainly be lower, because manufacturers are likely to expand their use of super credits and flexibility mechanisms. While super credits had minimal impact on the FY 2019–20 fleet, their impact could grow rapidly as the market share of battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and strong hybrids goes up.