Abstract:

This study examines the supply situation for raw materials required to make electric vehicle batteries and fuel cells and also incorporates the latest findings and data in this area, which have been used to calculate future raw material demand in two different scenarios. It focusses on lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and platinum. In this connection, it explores how market prices for key commodities could potentially develop in coming decades. It also considers measures for ensuring raw-materials mining is socially and environmentally sustainable. The study’s estimates are based on the climate protection scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Specifically, the authors estimate the commodity needs in 2030 and 2050 that would be associated with the IEA’s forecasts for growth in electric-powered trucks, cars, buses, motorcycles and pedelecs. Key findings of this study are: (1) Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and platinum are available in sufficient quantities to enable the rapid, worldwide adoption of electric vehicles. (2) Temporary supply bottlenecks and price increases are possible, particularly for cobalt and lithium. (3) The extraction of raw materials is inherently associated with environmental and social problems, and the commodities needed for battery technology are no exception in this regard.