Abstract:

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is a key federal program shifting the nation's transportation fuel mix towards lower-carbon alternatives. A 2014 update to the standard included certain types of renewable electricity as qualifying fuels, supporting vehicle electrification within the RFS for the first time. This study investigates the potential under existing regulatory authority to expand deployment of low-carbon waste-to-electricity pathways, yielding revenue that could be used to subsidize electric vehicle (EV) sales or to support other RFS-aligned climate and transport-sector goals. The authors find that by accounting for drivetrain efficiency in credit allocation and creating a centralized entity to accrue credits, the RFS could generate $8.7 to $24 billion in revenues annually that could be used to provide EV subsidies of $3600 to $9200 or to otherwise accelerate transport electrification. The economic potential for qualifying waste-derived bioelectricity production could meet EV fleet demand to at least 2029. Absent a federal Low Carbon Fuel Standard or other technology-neutral fuel policy, the RFS could effectively support widespread vehicle electrification. Expansion of waste-derived electricity could mitigate or increase pollutant exposure for some populations, so policy design and implementation must pay close attention to environmental health, justice, and equity.