Abstract:

This research contributes to discussions about policy interventions to stimulate the transition of vehicle technology. Concentrating on passenger cars, an extensive system dynamics based market agent model of powertrain technology transitions within the EU up to 2050 is employed. With a focus on subsidy scenarios for both infrastructure deployment and vehicle purchase, and set within the context of the EU fleet emission regulations, the authors find that there are important interactions between different powertrain types and with infrastructure provision. Strong plug-in electric vehicle (PiEV) policy could inhibit the maturity of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Infrastructure provision is important for improving the utility of a PiEV, but the authors find that in the early market it may have a weaker correlation with uptake than other policy options, until the PiEV stock share is over around 5%. The work presented in this paper relies on a complex model, which is extensive and detailed, but remains a simplified representation of the decision processes of market players.  The results of the study can help policymakers to find the right balance and timing of measures targeting the transition towards low carbon alternative vehicles. The authors concludes that without stringent fleet emission regulation targets in place for automobile manufacturers a significant transition towards e-mobility, as a potential enabler to meet wider transport and emission reduction targets, is unlikely to take place, regardless of supportive policies aimed at users.