Abstract:

Adoption of the California Advanced Clean Trucks rule across 14 states and the District of Columbia states, which sets minimum ZEV sales requirements on manufacturers of Class 2b-8 vehicles, would lead to 36% of all new M/HD vehicles powered by zero-emission engines in 2030. In that year, 12% of vehicle miles travelled would be zero-emission, and well-to-wheel CO2 emissions would decline to 12% below 2020 levels. Achieving the 100% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty sales goal by 2050 would deliver well-to-wheel CO2 emissions that are 38% below 2020 levels by 2040. Emissions would further decline to levels 66% below 2020 levels by 2050 and avoiding a cumulative 646 million metric tons of CO2 emissions from 2020-2050. The study also evaluates a faster pace of electrification where 100% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty sales occur by 2040. Achieving such a goal would reduce well-to-wheel CO2 emissions to levels 43% below 2020 levels in 2040 and 72% in 2050, cumulatively avoiding more than 120 million metric tons of additional CO2 from 2020 to 2050.