Abstract:

While fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) fueled by hydrogen produced using low-carbon processes could considerably reduce carbon emissions from transportation, FCEVs are produced at low volume, are expensive to manufacture, and lack widespread refueling infrastructure. To inform advancement pathways for FCEVs, the authors conducted an expert elicitation on vehicle costs and performance at anticipated production volumes, governmental actions to advance FCEVs, anticipated sales of FCEVs equipped with an automated driving system (ADS), and anticipated infrastructure deployments. Between 2020 and 2035, experts assessed a three-fold decline in fuel cell system costs to $60/kW and over an order of magnitude increase in production volume to 225,000 systems/year. Levelized costs of driving were assessed at $0.25–$0.90/mile and $0.17–$0.65/mile in 2035 and 2050, respectively. FCEVs could constitute a considerable share of ADS-equipped vehicle sales depending on cost and performance trajectories of automated driving technology and electric vehicles. Experts identified regulatory and incentive-based policies as important governmental actions to advance FCEVs and recommended hydrogen, fuel cells, and technology deployment activities each receive at least 20% of government research and development funding. Medians of experts' U.S. refueling station deployment assessments were 500 and 2,000 stations cumulative in 2030 and 2040, respectively. The middle 50% of respondents anticipated 2030 cumulative FCEV deployments in China of 100,000–1 million.