Abstract:

On-road diesel vehicles are the leading contributor to air pollution and associated disease burdens. Besides the impact on air quality and public health, black carbon from diesel engine exhaust produces significant near-term climate warming. This study analyzes the health and climate impacts associated with projected diesel HDV exhaust emissions in G20 economies under four scenarios: currently adopted policies, expanded adoption of Euro VI-equivalent standards, potential next-generation emission standards, and accelerated fleet renewal programs.

Expanded implementation of world-class standards in G20 economies in the 2023–2025 timeframe would reduce NOx by 45%–85% over the next two decades. Likewise, in G20 countries that have adopted these standards, black carbon emissions are projected to fall by 85%–99% over the next two decades compared with 2020 levels.