Abstract:

An uncontrolled increase in electric vehicle charging will likely cause a bottleneck in the energy supply, and significant variations in the total required load capacity. This article aims to identify bottlenecks in the energy grid supply in Stuttgart, Germany, based on different market penetration of battery electric vehicles. First, medium-term forecasts of electric and hybrid vehicles and the corresponding charging infrastructure are issued from 2017 to 2030, resulting in a share of 27% electric vehicles by 2030 in the Stuttgart region. Next, interactions between electric vehicles and the local energy system in Stuttgart were examined, comparing different development scenarios in the mobility sector. Further, a travel demand model was used to generate charging profiles of electric vehicles under consideration of mobility patterns. The charging demand was combined with standard household load profiles and a load flow analysis of the peak hour was carried out for a quarter comprising 349 households. The simulation shows that a higher charging capacity can lead to a lower transformer utilization, as charging and household peak load may fall temporally apart. Finally, it was examined whether the existing infrastructure is suitable to meet future demand focusing on the transformer reserve capacity. Overall, the need for action is limited only 10% of the approximately 560 sub-grids were identified as potential weak points. It can be concluded that, even if electromobility reaches 30% market penetration, there will be no critical shortage of energy supply.