Abstract:

The European Union (EU) has committed to addressing shipping emissions as part of its broader Arctic climate strategy. To date, the contribution of EU shipping to emissions in the Arctic has been primarily assessed based on data from EU-flagged ships. However, the number of ships navigating the Arctic to and from EU ports may be substantially higher, suggesting that previous assessments may underestimate the total impact. This study compares the composition, fuel use, and BC and CO2 emissions of the EU-flagged fleet in the Arctic, defined as ships flying EU flags, and the EU-regulated fleet in the Arctic, defined as ships reporting to the EU Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system, meaning they are voyaging to or from EU ports. To capture the full scope of emissions, we assess impacts across both a broadly defined Geographic Arctic region (north of 59°N) and the more limited Arctic as defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s Polar Code.