Abstract:

European Union legislation mandates carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction targets for new car and van sales. This regulation, referred to as the EU CO2 emission performance standards, is designed to steer the automotive industry towards achieving 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035. This briefing projects the CO2 targets for each manufacturer in 2025, based on the latest official data, and estimates the maximum share of new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) needed to comply. This maximum share assumes that manufacturers will not further reduce CO2 emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles.

The study analyzes the 10 largest manufacturers and concludes that all these manufacturers except Volvo must lower their CO2 emissions to meet the 2025 targets. This requires a maximum increase in battery electric vehicle sales, with manufacturers needing to raise their BEV share at most by an average of 12 percentage points, from 16% in 2023 to about 28% by 2025.