Abstract:

This study provides updated data on the upfront cost of zero-emission trucks. The assessment provides cost estimates up to 2040 for heavy-duty truck segments in the United States relevant to the upcoming Phase 3 greenhouse gas standards. The reductions of battery costs are one of the largest contributors to enabling price parity between battery-electric and diesel trucks. The analysis finds that while battery costs for zero-emission trucks and buses lag behind electric cars in cost reductions, their costs are expected to halve by 2030 compared to 2022, reaching $120/kWh at the pack level. Electric drive systems including the transmission, motor, and inverter are forecasted to see cost reductions of over 60% by 2030, reaching $23/kW.