Abstract:

In this paper, using a bottom- up energy systems model, the authors present a modeling based approach to understand the future development of India’s complex energy system and also look at how India’s commitments on climate change, as outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which is a part of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015), will affect its future energy and emissions scenarios. This study also found that solar penetration in India is highly cost sensitive. By analyzing alternative renewable energy technology cost developments in the future, the authors find that a decrease in solar cost by 50% can increase solar penetration by more than eight times as compared to the baseline scenario. This study also found that solar penetration in India is highly cost sensitive. This finding underlines the need to design appropriate policies that focus on reducing cost of generation as much as possible, in order to ensure a higher share of renewable generation and capacity in the power system. Finally, it could also be seen that the NDC target of reducing emission intensity of GDP is not a difficult task for India.