Abstract:

Promoting new energy vehicles (NEVs) is the key to achieving net-zero emissions in the transportation sector. NEVs' total life cycle CO2 emissions are mainly determined by average vehicle lifespan, annual mileage traveled, energy carbon intensity, and energy mix in the production stage. Current studies mainly adopt assumptions about NEVs' average lifespan due to limited available data. This paper expands on the previous studies by examining the NEVs' age and distribution based on the national representative China Compulsory Traffic Accident Liability Insurance for Motor Vehicles (CTALI) database from 2018 to 2020. Then, the survival patterns and lifespan of NEVs are assessed using Weibull distribution. New energy passenger vehicles' life cycle CO2 emissions are further evaluated based on the reshaped representative survival patterns. The results show that there are significant differences in survival patterns between conventional vehicles and NEVs. NEVs generally offer a shorter average lifespan compared with conventional vehicles. Among NEVs, the average lifespan of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is better than that of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The survival patterns of several types of electric vehicles (including passenger battery electric vehicles, non-operating light battery electric buses, and light battery electric trucks) do not have a stable period in their first few years of operation. The life cycle assessment results show that the total life cycle CO2 emissions of passenger BEVs and PHEVs are lower than those of conventional vehicles. However, the short lifespan dramatically increases the passenger BEV and PHEV total life cycle CO2 emissions per kilometer, resulting in passenger BEV total life cycle CO2 emissions per kilometer being higher than those of conventional vehicles.