Abstract:

This paper investigates the potential for electric vehicles to contribute toward leading nations’ climate goals. The analysis includes a cataloguing of existing national electric vehicle targets and consideration for plausible market growth for the new technology. In addition, the analysis includes a synthesis of data on future overall vehicle sales, vehicle activity, vehicle efficiency, and grid carbon emissions through 2050, with emphasis on the currently leading electric vehicle markets of China, Europe, and the United States. The analysis is focused exclusively on technology changes from increasing efficiency and increased uptake of electric vehicles in the light-duty vehicle fleet. A key objective of this paper is to analyze the potential emission reduction impacts from markets around the world that are achieving government goals for electric vehicle deployment, including a long-term transition to an electric-drive fleet. The study compiles data from various jurisdictions on electric-drive vehicle deployment goals, factors in plausible market constraints in the near-term, projects long-term vehicle technology paths, and analyzes the expected CO2 reduction potential based on a shift to electricity and hydrogen energy sources. The analysis quantifies the potential climate benefits from the most proactive governments meeting their long-term goals to decarbonize passenger vehicles with increased penetration of electric-drive. The results from the analysis provide several insights regarding near-term and long-term electric-vehicle deployment goals and their potential climate benefits.