Abstract:

This study adopts two scenarios to explore different futures of MAC energy consumption and emissions to 2050. The Baseline Scenario assumes no further policy intervention. In this scenario, the average global energy efficiency improves slowly – the only improvements are made by the switch to electric vehicles and in those countries with MAC policies in place. No changes in refrigerant use are included beyond those already mandated. It foresees energy consumption almost tripling to 5.7 Mboe/d by 2050. This is driven by the large increase in activity: there will be more than 2 billion cars and another 450 million other road vehicles globally, nearly all of which will have MAC installed. The uptake of vehicles with MAC will be greater in countries with warmer climates such as Indonesia and India, while at the same time the expected increase in global ambient temperatures will drive further MAC demand in more moderate climates