Abstract:

To reduce GHG emissions, several countries are increasing the proportion of renewable and clean sources, such as wind and solar power, in energy generation to minimize the existing fossil fuel-based power generation. The project Carbon-Free Island Jeju by 2030 promoted by the Republic of Korea aims to expand the renewable energy sources centered on wind power in Jeju Island and supply electric vehicles for eco-friendly mobility. However, the increased penetration rate of electric vehicles and expansion of variable renewable energy sources can accelerate the power demand and uncertainty in the power generation output. In this paper, power system analysis is performed through electric vehicle charging demand and wind power outputs prediction, and an electric vehicle charging decentralization algorithm is proposed to mitigate system congestion. To predict electric vehicle charging demand, the measurement data were analyzed, and random sampling was performed by applying the weight of charging frequency for each season and time. In addition, wind power outputs prediction was performed using the ARIMAX model. Input variables are wind power measurement data and additional explanatory variables (wind speed). Wind power outputs prediction error (absolute average error) is about 9.6%, which means that the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm is high. A practical power system analysis was performed for the scenario in which electric vehicle charging is expected to be higher than the wind power generation due to the concentration of electric vehicle charging. The proposed algorithm can be used to analyse power system problems that may arise in the future as a result of the concentration of electric vehicle charging demand, as well as to develop a method for decentralising electric vehicle charging demand to create a stable power system operation plan.