Abstract:

The Irish transport system fosters growing car use and emission by design, and is thus unfit to enable the country to meet its greenhouse gas reduction goals while improving well-being. Growing car use in Ireland is largely determined by car-dependent transport and urban systems, organized around increased mobility and characterised by three sustainable dynamics: induces car demand, urban sprawl, and sustainable modes low-attractiveness trap. Aiming at decarbonizing the system via private vehicle improvements is unlikely to lead to substantial different patterns of behavior, rapid emission reductions, and large well-being improvements. Car-dependent systems make rapid electrification slow and difficult by locking-in large and growing vehicle fleets. Even with improved (and fully-electric) vehicles, they also fail to reduce life-cycle emissions, address accessibility gaps and other negative impacts. Implemented policies and those expected to bring the highest emission reduction shares according to Ireland’s Climate Action Plan 2021 are unlikely to help the country transform its car dependent system. Most efforts in Ireland have been allocated to policies with a low to medium potential to transform the current system. Currently prioritized policies, such as electric vehicle incentives also reinforce car dependency, further locking the country into a system that fosters growing car use and emission by design. Ireland could unleash enormous opportunities by prioritizing policies with a high potential for transforming its car-dependent system. While taking different shapes, transformation of the transport system away from car dependency is possible in different types of territories. Policies with a high transformative potential include road space reallocation, the mainstream of on-demand shared services and communication efforts to address car-centric mindsets. Currently, these policies are marginal and implemented on a small scale.