Abstract:

In this paper the authors seek to understand the relative impacts that policies and incentives focused on e-mobility may have on the technology market shares for passenger cars, and the associated fleet energy requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. The authors have a European Union (EU) wide focus, and from this deduce what recommendations could be provided for countries intending to encourage e-mobility in the near future. For this task they integrate two in-house models of the vehicle fleet and market developed by the European Commission Joint Research Centre. The main policy conclusion is that although ambitious policy may lead to great improvements in specific efficiency and emissions, second order effects could lead to increased passenger car activity, limiting the overall emission improvement achieved. The results from this research present a compelling argument for combining model-based simulations of policy scenarios and analysis of impacts as important tools in policy support.