Abstract:

Electricity demand forecasting is an integral part of a robust power system planning, which helps to ensure affordable and reliable power to all. India's electricity demand will grow multifold in the coming years and will experience a continuous growth supported by post pandemic economic recovery, electrification of the transport sector, higher penetration of residential end use appliances, and manufacturing growth with indigenisation supported by various central government policies. This report provides an extensive analysis of electricity demand projections for both national and sub national level over the next decade. The analysis is based on historical data, current trends in electricity consumption, demographic changes, and various economic growth indicators. Two overarching methodologies- Econometric Regression (ER) Method and Partial End-Use Method (PEUM)- are adopted to assess the electricity demand. The result of these two methodologies are further analysed for two scenarios: Current Trajectory Scenario (CTS) and High Growth Rate (HGR) Scenario.