Abstract:

This report explores land transport emissions trends and mitigation potential relative to the 2 degree Celsius Target (2DS) and 1.5 degree Celsius Target (1.5DS) called for under the Paris Agreement on climate change. The main objective of this assessment is to estimate the magnitude of mitigation possible in the transport sector by 2050, considering low-carbon policies proposed and/or investigated for implementation in 60 individual countries with detailed emissions projections to 2050, which in 2010 accounted for about 89% of global land transport sector emissions about 76% of population, and about 84% of global GDP. The magnitude of emission reduction achieved through the implementation of low-carbon policies is compared with emission reductions in the transport sector consistent with achieving a two-degree Celsius scenario (2DS) target or 1.5DS target, as defined under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. A bottom-up analysis considering additional transport mitigation measures shows potential to approach a 2-degree scenario (if all modelled policies are implemented), but would still fall well short of a 1. 5-degree scenario.