Abstract:

Many governments around the world have identified transport electrification as a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Switching to electricity in the ground transport sector is considered a promising way to achieve the energy transition and CO2 emission reductions required to meet China's carbon neutral target by 2060.  This study developed a provincial transport energy model that considered provincial differences in socioeconomic development, population, land use and infrastructure, technological improvements, and EV policies to provide an assessment tool for estimating the future energy consumption and emissions of China’s ground transport sector. In this study, a transport energy model containing an elaborate transport demand model and a technology bottom-up model for detailed behavioral and technological representations was developed to investigate how electric vehicles (EVs) will penetrate the markets in the long-term and what impacts on energy consumption and emissions would emerge following EV adoption in China at the provincial level. A set of scenarios was created based on different policy interventions for the promotion of electric mobility. The results showed that subsidies for EV adoption would significantly boost the market share and foster a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, while the business-as-usual scenario would only generate a moderate influence on EV penetration. The regional differences in the emission reduction potential due to EV subsidies across the 31 provinces indicated that policy instruments for EV promotion would have significant positive effects in the developed provinces in both the capital metropolitan area and southeastern China. An economic cost analysis revealed a relatively low economic feasibility in northeastern and northwestern regions where the emission reduction potential is also lower than the national average, implying that the developing provinces in northeastern and northwestern China require greater financial assistance and the establishment of supportive policies for EV promotion. Policy actions to promote electric mobility in developing provinces might need higher subsidies and stronger financial supporting incentives, which should be considered to implement more effective province-specific policies.