Abstract:

A strong decarbonization target for the road sector would steer India closer to its climate commitments and decarbonization offers significant co-benefits like cleaner air and related health and well-being gains. Still, data about energy use and emissions that could provide the groundwork for policy supporting such a target is lacking, and few studies have attempted to compare modeling frameworks and projections across different models of India’s transport sector. To help fill the gap, this paper is a meta-analysis of eight of India’s key road transport energy and emissions models. It compares key assumptions, energy use, and CO₂ emissions by vehicle and fuel type; assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; and considers how much emissions reduction could be achieved from the road transport sector by 2050 through aggressive policy efforts. Despite differences, in a business-as-usual (BAU) future scenario without additional policy interventions, the models generally expect a 3–4 times rise in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions between 2020 and 2050. However, interventions like fuel efficiency improvements in combustion engine vehicles, vehicle electrification, increased use of alternative fuels, and restraining travel demand could limit or even reverse the growth trend CO₂ emissions from the transport sector. In an Aggressive Policy scenario, these could help abate 45%–50% of cumulative CO₂ emissions between 2021 and 2050.