Abstract:

In an effort to address critical air pollution problems and reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, India has implemented policies promoting the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the decarbonization of the power sector. This paper seeks to understand how large-scale vehicle electrification might alter emissions in India by estimating vehicle tailpipe and power sector emissions through 2040 under various scenarios representing plausible evolutions of the electricity grid. Results show an ambitious vehicle electrification pathway under which EVs reach 95% of total new vehicle sales by 2040 could reduce tailpipe emissions between 18% and 50%, depending on the pollutant.