Abstract:

This report highlights strategies to reduce GHG emissions from the vehicle stock and is targeted toward the German federal government. The paper analyzes the extent to which a hypothetical vehicle scrappage program could accelerate GHG emission reductions from the 49 million passenger cars on the road in Germany, the largest passenger car stock in the European Union. We also briefly explore the emissions reduction potential of other strategies, such as avoid-and-shift policies and the use of synthetic fuels, or e-fuels, and discuss how these strategies could affect a scrappage scheme. We also consider the societal costs and benefits of both the vehicle scrappage program and e-fuels, and briefly discuss the feasibility of retrofitting combustion engine cars to battery electric vehicles. Vehicle scrappage strategies are assessed using the ICCT Roadmap model in combination with damage functions for air pollutants derived from a reduced-form air quality and health impact model and using the social cost of carbon values from the German Federal Environment Agency. The projected costs of producing e-fuels in Europe are assessed using the e-fuel cost model developed by the ICCT.