Abstract:

The transport sector is the second-largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emission source in Hong Kong after the power sector, and road transport is the largest source of transport emissions. Decarbonizing road transport is important for realizing the city’s net-zero emission goal. This report focuses on the top road transport emitters—private cars, freight vehicles, and buses. It is crucial to foster Hong Kong’s franchised bus electrification without compromising high operational efficiency, passenger comfort, and market competitiveness. Due to high vehicle prices and costly infrastructure investments, the total cost of ownership (TCO) cost parity between diesel double-deckers and electric double-deckers is not yet achieved in 2021. In the future, with lower vehicle prices and improved vehicle energy efficiency, TCO cost parity may be reached in (or before) 2030. Based on possible TCO parity timeliness as well as the measures taken by various stakeholders, the study proposes three possible “diesel bus ban” time lines: 2026, 2030, and 2033.