Stochastic Analysis of Future Scenarios for Battery Electric Vehicle Deployment and the Upgrade of the Electricity Generation System in Spain
Publication Year: 2021
Author(s): Fernández RA
Abstract:
In this paper, the author analyzes the current situation in evaluating the electric system's capacity to support a growing number of charging events and, at the same time, the reduction of a part of the power sources (those non-renewables) that sustain the Spanish electric grid. This study analyzes the current and future impacts caused by uncontrolled electric vehicle charging activities on the electrical grid in terms of the possibility of having an undetermined number of electric vehicles plugged in at the same time. The results obtained show that charging battery electric vehicles could heavily impact the daily request of electric power, and the peak time for electricity consumption would become unmanageable. In particular, the Spanish grid is vulnerable due to the government's intention to achieve a gradually greater proportion of renewable energy through the closure of fossil fuel and nuclear power stations. This study proposes and evaluates a set of scenarios by developing a simplified stochastic model that considers the uncertainty involved in the problem. Electromobility can only be successful if the power system is considered. The evolution from the current situation to a series of future electrified mobility scenarios will heavily impact the annual energy consumption and the daily electric power supply. The results show that the development of a charging network that allows vehicle batteries to be recharged during working hours seems to be the most suitable solution, while the uncontrolled growth and management of a fast-recharging network would be the worst strategy.
Source of Publication: Journal of Cleaner Production
Vol/Issue: 316, 128101: 1-15p.
DOI No.: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128101
Country: Spain
Publisher/Organisation: Elsevier Ltd.
Rights: Elsevier Ltd.
URL:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652621023192
Theme: Charging Infrastructure | Subtheme: Public charging station
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