Abstract:

This study investigates the potential to meet the fuel carbon goals of four jurisdictions of the Pacific Coast region, simultaneously. California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Requirements, and Oregon and Washington’s proposed Clean Fuel Standards all seek to reduce the carbon intensity of vehicle fuels over time. California’s and British Columbia’s policies call for a 10% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020, to be accomplished through displacing gasoline and diesel by lower-carbon renewable fuels and shifting the composition of the vehicle fleet toward alternative fuel vehicles. The study presents eight scenarios for low-carbon fuel supply, including varying amounts of electricity, hydrogen, ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, next generation cellulosic biofuel, and natural gas in the Pacific Coast region. Potential carbon savings are estimated by comparing the expected carbon intensity of these alternative fuels to the carbon intensity of the fossil fuels they replace. This analysis is novel in its evaluation of fuel availability across the four jurisdictions simultaneously, in its consideration of resource and industry constraints, and its quantification of fuel carbon intensity according to the adopted fuel policy lifecycle carbon ratings.